Scenario management in strategy development
Abstract : Developmentof strategies is based on estimations, prognosis and sales forecasts, even iffuture is unpredictable. This means managers have to deal with an rising levelof uncertainties because today’s markets are highly dynamic and change withinshort time. Based on the approach that the customer orientation will increasemore and more, the manufacturing philosophy changes from conventional batchwise production to lot size one, a prediction of customer’s behavior is alsomore and more less exact or even impossible.
Thougha prediction of future changes is not possible, a different approach for thedevelopment of strategies is needed. The presentation will show how possible,thinkable scenarios for the future can be developed and what kind of strategiescould be derived out of this, based on the companies’ decision what the generalconcept for the future development will be. It will be shown that a predictionof future changes is still not possible but the ability to cope with them canbe improved or even approaches to influence the development of a whishedscenario could be integrated into companies’ strategy development
报告人简历 : Thomas Masurat，德国维尔道应用科技大学教授， Clausthal 工业技术大学博士，博士课题“数字工厂内综合性产品工程与生产流程建设的新组织结构”。Prof. Masurat具有富厚的生产实践经验，曾担当汉堡空客CIMPA 责任有限公司计划照料、精益生产部部长。Prof. Masurat 现研究主要内容为：（1）工厂计划研发新设计要领与工具；（2）数字工厂中建立在实时模拟基础上的设计要领；（3）研发多方加入工厂计划设计新要领；（4）诠释适用于中小企业的、立异有效工厂及生产计划计划；（5）产品研发历程中引入精益理念基来源理（Lean Engineering）.